Suchergebnisse

Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine hydrological and climate model simulations to evaluate risks to the water supply under projected shifts in the climate at the Paris Agreement warming levels. Modelling the primary surface water sources for Melbourne, Australia, we project that the risk of severe water supply shortage to the climate-dependent portion of the system increases substantially as global warming increases from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Risks are further exacerbated by increases in water demand but substantially ameliorated by supply augmentation from desalination. We demonstrate that reductions in precipitation, rising temperature and growth in water demand combine to substantially amplify the risk of severe water supply shortage under near-term global warming in the absence of a climate-independent supply. This risk amplification is not as apparent in assessments based on meteorological drought alone. With the diminishing opportunity of meeting the 1.5 °C Paris target, our study highlights the need to accelerate greenhouse gas mitigation efforts to reduce risks to climate dependent water supply systems. ; BJH, MP and RN received funding from an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP150100062), which was co-funded by Melbourne Water and the Victorian Department of Environment, Land,Water and Planning, and supported by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology BJH and ADK are Associate Investigators of the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX, CE170100023). MP received funding from an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT120100130). AMU received funding from CLEX. ADK received funding from an ARC DECRA (DE180100638). DJK is supported by the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, which is funded by the Australian government's National Environmental Science Program.